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In 2001 the Georgia Traditional Industries Program (TIP3) sponsored a cooperative study at the D.B. Warnell School of Forest Resources, University of Georgia, to analyze the long-term sustainability of fiber supply in Georgia. The subject of this study is relevant to a diverse array of disciplines, and it offers the opportunity to explore various aspects of sustainability not directly related to the supply of fiber or timber alone. Examples of such aspects include studies of biomass densities and production, carbon densities, sequestration and credits, landscape changes, etc.

Our objectives are to:

• conduct spatially explicit simulations of growth and harvest of forest resources in Georgia under various assumptions;
• identify major factors impacting the long-term wood supply in Georgia;
• conduct sensitivity analysis on simulations with respect to the assumptions and forest management practices;
• estimate the impact of various forest management practices on future forest resources in Georgia;
• estimate the effect of various regulatory scenarios on the state’s wood supply.

One of the most vital questions asked by society today is whether or not our natural resources are utilized on a sustainable basis. No reliable answer to this question can be produced from simple comparisons of current growth rates and levels of removals because 1) the growth of forests does not follow linear trends and 2) all growing stock recorded is not recorded in the forest inventory due to minimum recording size. To answer resource sustainability questions, one needs to conduct a more complex analysis involving proper modeling of changes over time that are nonlinear in nature. This includes using explicit assumptions concerning regeneration dynamics, specifying assumptions regarding future land use changes, and taking into account supply and demand of forest products.

Forestry and the forest industry is an important part of Georgia’s economy. It generates about 177,000 jobs and contributes $22 billion annually to the State’s economy. Forests cover almost ¾ of Georgia’s area and they are owned by about 630,000 landowners. American forestry, especially in the South, in recent years has change very fast. Production areas are decreasing due to such factors as urban expansion and political and regulatory constraints on harvesting. At the same time we have seen an increase in wood-product demand as well as non-timber related uses, such as tourism, recreation, fishing, and hunting. Given this multitude of interests it is no mystery why society is concerned about the sustainability of our state’s forests.

The state’s forest industry depends on accurate fiber supply assessments and the ability to predict changes in available inventory. With the rapid changes in the status and conditions of forests in the South, there is a need for more frequent inventory surveys. It is important also to monitor changes in land use, urbanization, fuel loading, balance of growth to harvest and various catastrophic events. Recent efforts in obtaining more accurate and timely inventory estimates through reorganization of the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) inventory methods and through the implementation of the Southern Annual Forest Inventory System (SAFIS) reflect the importance of inventory updates for the forest industry and southern state economies.